June 19, 2015
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) recently released its 2014 preliminary report on births in the United States. It predicts that, for the first time in seven years, the number of births will rise, increasing the average number of births per mother to roughly 1.9% . If accurate, this increase in births has exciting implications, particularly with regard to the economy.
However, the preliminary report has to be viewed with prudent reservation. In the CDC’s 2013 preliminary report on births, the total number of births was projected to rise above the 2012 total. Yet the final report ended up showing an overall decrease in births due to an over-calculation in the preliminary report of more than 25,000 births.
Turning to the 2014 preliminary report, the increased number of births projected is so miniscule that if the miscalculation made in 2013 were repeated in the 2014 preliminary report, then the overall increase in births from 2013-2014 would be roughly 28,000, an overall increase of less than 0.75%.
The projected increase in number of births is an encouraging step in the right direction, but only a small one. We await the release of the final report to better understand these preliminary findings.
On the importance of a higher birthrate in the United States, see the Marriage and Religion Research Institute’s “The Decline of Economic Growth: Human Capital & Population Change.”